Bogley

Sombeech · Joined: 09 Dec 2004 Posts: 12660 Location: The Rubbish Bin

We've been hearing this term for a while. Is it caused by too much CO2? Is it real? Is it fake?

What are the statistics? If the Icecaps melt, does the ocean necessarily rise?

Does global warming exist when our wasatch front still has snow on the peaks after the first week of June?

Here's the place to hash out the details on why, or why not you believe GW exists. :popcorn:

Udink · Joined: 20 Jul 2005 Posts: 866 Location: Price, Utah

There's no doubt that global temperatures have gotten warmer since the ice age (duh), but I don't think anybody can reliably prove that humans are responsible for it. Hell, there was a time when the earth didn't even have polar ice caps, and there were no humans around to be blamed. It's obvious that climate changes are always occurring on this planet, so who cares if global temperatures go up or down by a few degrees? In the grand scheme of things, none of it matters.

stefan · Joined: 09 Jan 2006 Posts: 4656 Location: somewhere

As i understand it there are two types of warming.

(1) Clearly we are exiting the ice age and there has been a natural trend of warming for 10,000 years. Scientists are NOT suggesting that THIS is our fault.

(2) There is a TREND which shows a marked increase in average tempurature RISE over the past 100 years, especially the last 50. What this is demonstrating is that there is an ACCELERATION of the warming. Furthermore that this acceleration in average temp. is correlated with a related increase in the amount of carbon dioxide released during that period. it is THIS which scientists believe WE are responsible for.

it's actually dramatically impressive the amount of CO2 we can put into the atmostphere. most folks wouldn't really believe it, then again, it's hard for humans to really grasp the scope of anything large scale.

what bothers me most is that WE as humans only choose to deal with issues when they are a crisis. Rather than entertain the possibility that we are responsible and try to change it, we'd rather deny it and wait until it's a much more difficult problem.

Now i totally disagree with Udink. Who cares about a couple of degrees? Sheesh. What do you know about a couple of degrees. You and I have no concept of the implications of a couple of degrees. Now i will say that no one knows precisely what the implications are, but it's short-sighted to suggest that a couple of degrees means NOTHING, it's also very short-sighted to expect that it'll only be a couple of degrees. Plus you cannot base what happens over the course of a few years on what can happen in many years from the same result. The surface of the earth and it's atmosphere form a very complex system, for %&$#'s sake we cannot even predict the weather more than 3 days out. Tinkering with our atmosphere *potentially* can lead to dramatic consequences. I don't think this should be taken so lightly.

It's better to err on the side of caution in this case, i would think.

"Grand scheme of things", this arguement is a way to cop out of responsibility and moreover, it's absurdly in alignment with, "well, eventually, i'll be dead, so who cares about what i do in life and the value of my decisions."

KillEmAll · Joined: 10 Dec 2004 Posts: 475 Location: Layton, UT

I certainly believe in global warming, in the fact that the globe is warming. But global waming is such a loosely used term. Technically the Earth is warming but there is no proof whatsoever that humans are the cause. It has been proven that throughout mankind, and before that, the earth's temperature has abruptly changed, sometimes hotter, sometimes colder. I'm not saying that humans don't need to clean up their act, but I can't stand it when humans, especially Americans, get blamed for everything "bad" that happens on this planet. I can't wait until we start getting blamed for earthquakes and volcanos. I work with a guy that really believes the government caused Katrina. He also believes the gov. blew up the World Trade Center. But that's a whole other topic.

Sombeech · Joined: 09 Dec 2004 Posts: 12660 Location: The Rubbish Bin

I step outside yesterday, and start sweating immediately because of the heat this early in June. Even May had record high temps.

And then I still see snow on Mt Ogden approaching mid-June. Maybe I'll start a theory called "valley warming".

James_B_Wads2000 · Posted: Wed Jun 07, 2006 9:41 am Post subject:

Udink wrote: There's no doubt that global temperatures have gotten warmer since the ice age (duh), but I don't think anybody can reliably prove that humans are responsible for it. Hell, there was a time when the earth didn't even have polar ice caps, and there were no humans around to be blamed. It's obvious that climate changes are always occurring on this planet, so who cares if global temperatures go up or down by a few degrees? In the grand scheme of things, none of it matters.

You are right that the planet is and has been getting warmer for last ~200,000yrs. I don’t think scientist believe that humans are solely responsible for well documented temperature increases. Where the concern is whether humans are causing the natural rate of warming to increase. You are right that nobody can absolutely prove that humans are doing this, but there is mounting data that would show that human activity can affect the global climate.

I am with you that so what the Earth is increasing in temperature, it has been without ice caps many times in its history. Hell they have found fossils of dinosaurs and fern trees in the northern most islands of Canada (which have stayed relatively close to the North Pole for the last ~300 million years). Where the problem is that these sudden changes in climate may kill off a lot of people if steps are not made to deal with the problem. With so many people on the planet draining the natural recourses sudden changes in climate would make some areas unfit for food production, famine results. Sea levels rise making costal areas no longer habitable and people have to be displaced. I think humans will adapt but many will die in the transition.

Will human contributions to global warming wipe out all life on Earth? Hell no, not possible. Will it wipe out human life on Earth? Maybe, it would take thousands of years. Will it make human life more difficult on Earth? I would say yes there is a very good chance.

James

stefan · Joined: 09 Jan 2006 Posts: 4656 Location: somewhere

Sombeech wrote: I step outside yesterday, and start sweating immediately because of the heat this early in June. Even May had record high temps.

And then I still see snow on Mt Ogden approaching mid-June. Maybe I'll start a theory called "valley warming".

snow takes a long time to melt, especially when there is a lot of it and the snow is dense. Snow reflects a lot of the sun's radiation too. Last year the snow was very very deep and it seemed as though we could ski forever. ah it was fantastic. but by my last week of june and first week of july skiing the wasatch, it was becoming clear to me that the snow was vanishing superrapidly.

FYI alta measured 700" by the end of April last year, 150" above average, This year was very high too. Before last year, 1997 was the last comparable year. So the snow being around isn't a good indicator. it's the rate of melting of the snow of comparable years that, in the crudest of senses, would be marginally appropriate.

Sombeech · Joined: 09 Dec 2004 Posts: 12660 Location: The Rubbish Bin

stefan wrote: So the snow being around isn't a good indicator. it's the rate of melting of the snow of comparable years that, in the crudest of senses, would be marginally appropriate.

So does this mean it's not consistently getting warmer, but comes and goes in waves?

stefan · Joined: 09 Jan 2006 Posts: 4656 Location: somewhere

Sombeech wrote: stefan wrote: So the snow being around isn't a good indicator. it's the rate of melting of the snow of comparable years that, in the crudest of senses, would be marginally appropriate.

So does this mean it's not consistently getting warmer, but comes and goes in waves?

Well remember "warming" is in an averaged sense, there constantly are fluctuations due to rotation of earth about axis/sun, weather patterns, whatever. This means that it can be cold enough at a moment when a lot of moisture is passing through a region, i.e., enough to lay down tons of snow, but on average, be warmer from one year to the next.

I guess my point is that none of this is really cut-and-dry. For example 1997-1998 was a HUGE snow year (alta 650-700+), yet January was the 3rd warmest on record. You need to look at averages over time in many different locations, i think, to get a real sense of "warming."

Udink · Joined: 20 Jul 2005 Posts: 866 Location: Price, Utah

stefan wrote: Furthermore that this acceleration in average temp. is correlated with a related increase in the amount of carbon dioxide released during that period. it is THIS which scientists believe WE are responsible for.
You should not confuse correllation with coincidence. A correllation has not been proven.

stefan wrote: "Grand scheme of things", this arguement is a way to cop out of responsibility and moreover, it's absurdly in alignment with, "well, eventually, i'll be dead, so who cares about what i do in life and the value of my decisions."
I agree that it's a cop-out. However, who's to say that humans have a responsibility to try to propagate themselves forever? It's a matter of when, not if we go out just like the dinosaurs and wooly mammoths.

James_B_Wads2000 wrote: Will human contributions to global warming wipe out all life on Earth? Hell no, not possible. Will it wipe out human life on Earth? Maybe, it would take thousands of years. Will it make human life more difficult on Earth? I would say yes there is a very good chance.
I agree wholeheartedly, and this is about the most pragmatic answer we're likely to see on this board. :smile:

stefan · Joined: 09 Jan 2006 Posts: 4656 Location: somewhere

Udink wrote:
You should not confuse correllation with coincidence. A correllation has not been proven.

i DIDN'T confuse correlation with coincidence. Sure, correlation can be an indicatior of coincidence. i didn't suggest this wasn't a possibllity. i simply stated that there is a correlation and that this is one angle that scientists use to SUGGEST that we are responsible. No one's PROVING anything, mostly because it's too hard. THIS is why i would prefer the preventative approach to *potential* crises and to err on the side of caution. What is so wrong with the idea of acknowledging the possibility that we may be an influence and trying to apply measures to curb our carbon output? It has other beneficial effects also.

Udink wrote: stefan wrote: "Grand scheme of things", this arguement is a way to cop out of responsibility and moreover, it's absurdly in alignment with, "well, eventually, i'll be dead, so who cares about what i do in life and the value of my decisions."
I agree that it's a cop-out. However, who's to say that humans have a responsibility to try to propagate themselves forever? It's a matter of when, not if we go out just like the dinosaurs and wooly mammoths.

I think in the grand scheme of things there is no such thing as responsibility, good or bad...everything just is or is not. But i think placing value is part of what is being human (not exclusively). I place high value on OUR livelihood and believe that it shouldn't be degraded by careless economic development. Oh and if it's a matter of when and not if, then why bother living at all? what's the point? i just don't understand the meaning of this argument.

What is pragmatic is trying to analyze the effects our actions take, to evaluate the ramifications not on a purely economical basis, and try make more informed decision and changes to improve the manner in which we operate. We have a long time before we go extinct.

Sombeech · Joined: 09 Dec 2004 Posts: 12660 Location: The Rubbish Bin

June 15th 2006
Mt Ogden

ATVUtah · Joined: 18 Mar 2006 Posts: 15

I have absolute undeniable irrefutable photographic proof of Global Warming.

Udink · Joined: 20 Jul 2005 Posts: 866 Location: Price, Utah

ATVUtah wrote: I have absolute undeniable irrefutable photographic proof of Global Warming.
:roflol: Hahaha...in that case, bring on the global warming! :naughty:

rockgremlin · Joined: 09 Dec 2004 Posts: 4071 Location: Hotel California

:roflol: I'm with Udink --- bring on the warming!!! It's not hot enough!!

My supervisor went for a drive up on the La Sals a week ago. He drives a HUGE Ford F350, with an impressive lift kit. He said he got stuck in a really deep snow drift, and had to walk back for help to pull him out. Lots of snow still up there.

Its a fact that the earth is warming, but whether or not we are responsible remains to be seen. Like was mentioned above, this earth goes through periods of dramatic temperature fluctuations. What caused those fluctuations before man was burning fossil fuels?

Another thing to consider -- we only have reliable archived temperature data as far back as the mid-late 1800s. So we can only compare the current climate to that set of data. Who is to say that there weren't periods where temperatures spiked dramatically (a rapid acceleration of warming) BEFORE the 1800s? What was responsible for it then?

A good read on this topic is "The Skeptical Environmentalist" by a former bigwig for Greenpeace, Bjorn Lomborg.